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M1 - PPI

M1 - PPI
行情获取时间: 202208
M1 - PPI

①信用周期可以较大程度形容A股市场的剩余流动性环境。当信用大幅扩张的时候,也是企业部门能够通过各种手段大量拿到便宜资金的时候, 于是这一阶段,一般都会发生所谓的“脱实入虚”,即企业部门将拿到的资金投入房地产市场或者金融市场。

②作为一个验证,信用周期的指标可以很好的同M1-PPI相互拟合。投资者经常用M1-PPI来形容股票市场的剩余流动性,大体逻辑在于,M1代 表市场上的钱,PPI代表进入实体经济的钱,于是两者相减,即代表漏出到金融市场的钱。

③最终,信用周期表征的剩余流动性,很大程度决定了A股市场整体估值的水位。

【天风证券研究所】

m1-ppi(天风证券)
时间 M1同比 PPI同比 M1-PPI
200001 19.38% 0.03% 19.35%
200002 15.30% 1.00% 14.30%
200003 18.70% 1.87% 16.83%
200004 21.72% 2.59% 19.13%
200005 22.30% 2.50% 19.80%
200006 23.70% 2.95% 20.75%
200007 22.60% 4.50% 18.10%
200008 21.92% 3.92% 18.00%
200009 20.76% 3.70% 17.06%
200010 18.19% 3.60% 14.59%
200011 17.10% 3.50% 13.60%
200012 15.95% 2.80% 13.15%
200101 16.83% 1.43% 15.40%
200102 16.40% 0.90% 15.50%
200103 17.40% 0.22% 17.18%
200104 15.00% -0.12% 15.12%
200105 13.00% -0.20% 13.20%
200106 14.90% -0.56% 15.46%
200107 11.92% -1.27% 13.19%
200108 14.16% -1.99% 16.15%
200109 12.26% -2.90% 15.16%
200110 12.30% -3.10% 15.40%
200111 11.40% -3.72% 15.12%
200112 12.65% -3.97% 16.62%
200201 9.50% -4.00% 13.50%
200202 10.90% -4.10% 15.00%
200203 10.10% -3.98% 14.08%
200204 11.50% -3.06% 14.56%
200205 14.60% -2.63% 17.23%
200206 12.80% -2.48% 15.28%
200207 17.00% -2.34% 19.34%
200208 14.60% -1.73% 16.33%
200209 15.90% -1.38% 17.28%
200210 17.90% -1.03% 18.93%
200211 18.50% -0.41% 18.91%
200212 16.82% 0.41% 16.41%
200301 19.50% 2.38% 17.12%
200302 18.80% 3.97% 14.83%
200303 20.12% 4.60% 15.52%
200304 18.00% 3.62% 14.38%
200305 18.80% 1.96% 16.84%
200306 20.24% 1.34% 18.90%
200307 20.00% 1.39% 18.61%
200308 18.80% 1.38% 17.42%
200309 18.51% 1.37% 17.14%
200310 19.60% 1.20% 18.40%
200311 18.90% 1.92% 16.98%
200312 18.67% 2.99% 15.68%
200401 15.74% 3.47% 12.27%
200402 19.78% 3.54% 16.24%
200403 20.12% 3.99% 16.13%
200404 20.03% 5.01% 15.02%
200405 19.24% 5.70% 13.54%
200406 16.73% 6.40% 10.33%
200407 15.53% 6.38% 9.15%
200408 15.70% 6.81% 8.89%
200409 14.24% 7.90% 6.34%
200410 13.10% 8.43% 4.67%
200411 14.32% 8.10% 6.22%
200412 13.58% 7.07% 6.51%
200501 15.84% 5.81% 10.03%
200502 11.08% 5.38% 5.70%
200503 10.40% 5.64% 4.76%
200504 10.50% 5.78% 4.72%
200505 10.40% 5.90% 4.50%
200506 11.25% 5.24% 6.01%
200507 11.00% 5.19% 5.81%
200508 11.50% 5.26% 6.24%
200509 11.64% 4.50% 7.14%
200510 12.08% 4.01% 8.07%
200511 12.71% 3.21% 9.50%
200512 11.78% 3.22% 8.56%
200601 10.63% 3.05% 7.58%
200602 12.44% 3.01% 9.43%
200603 12.67% 2.49% 10.18%
200604 12.48% 1.87% 10.61%
200605 14.01% 2.43% 11.58%
200606 13.94% 3.52% 10.42%
200607 15.34% 3.58% 11.76%
200608 15.57% 3.40% 12.17%
200609 15.70% 3.45% 12.25%
200610 16.33% 2.90% 13.43%
200611 16.83% 2.78% 14.05%
200612 17.48% 3.05% 14.43%
200701 19.80% 3.30% 16.50%
200702 20.99% 2.60% 18.39%
200703 19.81% 2.65% 17.16%
200704 20.01% 2.87% 17.14%
200705 19.28% 2.76% 16.52%
200706 20.92% 2.49% 18.43%
200707 20.94% 2.39% 18.55%
200708 22.77% 2.56% 20.21%
200709 22.07% 2.71% 19.36%
200710 22.21% 3.21% 19.00%
200711 21.67% 4.55% 17.12%
200712 21.00% 5.43% 15.57%
200801 20.54% 6.07% 14.47%
200802 18.95% 6.62% 12.33%
200803 17.97% 7.95% 10.02%
200804 19.05% 8.12% 10.93%
200805 17.93% 8.22% 9.71%
200806 14.19% 8.84% 5.35%
200807 13.96% 10.03% 3.93%
200808 11.48% 10.06% 1.42%
200809 9.43% 9.13% 0.30%
200810 8.85% 6.59% 2.26%
200811 6.80% 1.99% 4.81%
200812 9.06% -1.14% 10.20%
200901 6.68% -3.35% 10.03%
200902 10.87% -4.47% 15.34%
200903 17.04% -5.99% 23.03%
200904 17.48% -6.60% 24.08%
200905 18.69% -7.20% 25.89%
200906 24.79% -7.80% 32.59%
200907 26.37% -8.22% 34.59%
200908 27.72% -7.86% 35.58%
200909 29.51% -6.99% 36.50%
200910 32.03% -5.85% 37.88%
200911 34.63% -2.08% 36.71%
200912 32.35% 1.70% 30.65%
201001 38.96% 4.32% 34.64%
201002 34.99% 5.39% 29.60%
201003 29.94% 5.91% 24.03%
201004 31.25% 6.81% 24.44%
201005 29.90% 7.13% 22.77%
201006 24.60% 6.41% 18.19%
201007 22.90% 4.84% 18.06%
201008 21.90% 4.32% 17.58%
201009 20.90% 4.33% 16.57%
201010 22.10% 5.04% 17.06%
201011 22.10% 6.06% 16.04%
201012 21.20% 5.93% 15.27%
201101 13.60% 6.64% 6.96%
201102 14.50% 7.23% 7.27%
201103 15.00% 7.31% 7.69%
201104 12.90% 6.82% 6.08%
201105 12.70% 6.79% 5.91%
201106 13.10% 7.12% 5.98%
201107 11.60% 7.54% 4.06%
201108 11.20% 7.25% 3.95%
201109 8.85% 6.52% 2.33%
201110 8.40% 5.00% 3.40%
201111 7.80% 2.72% 5.08%
201112 7.90% 1.69% 6.21%
201201 3.10% 0.73% 2.37%
201202 4.30% 0.03% 4.27%
201203 4.40% -0.32% 4.72%
201204 3.10% -0.70% 3.80%
201205 3.50% -1.40% 4.90%
201206 4.70% -2.08% 6.78%
201207 4.60% -2.87% 7.47%
201208 4.50% -3.48% 7.98%
201209 7.30% -3.55% 10.85%
201210 6.10% -2.76% 8.86%
201211 5.50% -2.20% 7.70%
201212 6.50% -1.94% 8.44%
201301 15.30% -1.64% 16.94%
201302 9.50% -1.63% 11.13%
201303 11.90% -1.92% 13.82%
201304 11.90% -2.62% 14.52%
201305 11.30% -2.87% 14.17%
201306 9.10% -2.70% 11.80%
201307 9.70% -2.27% 11.97%
201308 9.90% -1.63% 11.53%
201309 8.90% -1.34% 10.24%
201310 8.90% -1.51% 10.41%
201311 9.40% -1.42% 10.82%
201312 9.30% -1.36% 10.66%
201401 1.20% -1.64% 2.84%
201402 6.90% -2.02% 8.92%
201403 5.40% -2.30% 7.70%
201404 5.50% -2.00% 7.50%
201405 5.70% -1.45% 7.15%
201406 8.90% -1.11% 10.01%
201407 6.70% -0.87% 7.57%
201408 5.70% -1.20% 6.90%
201409 4.80% -1.80% 6.60%
201410 3.20% -2.24% 5.44%
201411 3.20% -2.69% 5.89%
201412 3.20% -3.32% 6.52%
201501 10.60% -4.32% 14.92%
201502 5.60% -4.80% 10.40%
201503 2.90% -4.56% 7.46%
201504 3.70% -4.57% 8.27%
201505 4.70% -4.61% 9.31%
201506 4.30% -4.81% 9.11%
201507 6.60% -5.37% 11.97%
201508 9.30% -5.92% 15.22%
201509 11.40% -5.95% 17.35%
201510 14.00% -5.90% 19.90%
201511 15.70% -5.90% 21.60%
201512 15.20% -5.90% 21.10%
201601 18.60% -5.30% 23.90%
201602 17.40% -4.90% 22.30%
201603 22.10% -4.30% 26.40%
201604 22.90% -3.40% 26.30%
201605 23.70% -2.80% 26.50%
201606 24.60% -2.60% 27.20%
201607 25.40% -1.70% 27.10%
201608 25.30% -0.80% 26.10%
201609 24.70% 0.10% 24.60%
201610 23.90% 1.20% 22.70%
201611 22.70% 3.30% 19.40%
201612 21.40% 5.50% 15.90%
201701 14.50% 6.90% 7.60%
201702 21.40% 7.80% 13.60%
201703 18.80% 7.60% 11.20%
201704 18.50% 6.40% 12.10%
201705 17.00% 5.50% 11.50%
201706 15.00% 5.50% 9.50%
201707 15.30% 5.50% 9.80%
201708 14.00% 6.30% 7.70%
201709 14.00% 6.90% 7.10%
201710 13.00% 6.90% 6.10%
201711 12.70% 5.80% 6.90%
201712 11.80% 4.90% 6.90%
201801 15.00% 4.30% 10.70%
201802 8.50% 3.70% 4.80%
201803 7.10% 3.10% 4.00%
201804 7.20% 3.40% 3.80%
201805 6.00% 4.10% 1.90%
201806 6.60% 4.70% 1.90%
201807 5.10% 4.60% 0.50%
201808 3.90% 4.10% -0.20%
201809 4.00% 3.60% 0.40%
201810 2.70% 3.30% -0.60%
201811 1.50% 2.70% -1.20%
201812 1.50% 0.90% 0.60%
201901 0.40% 0.10% 0.30%
201902 1.60% 0.10% 1.50%
201903 4.60% 0.40% 4.20%
201904 2.90% 0.90% 2.00%
201905 3.40% 0.60% 2.80%
201906 4.40% 0.00% 4.40%
201907 3.10% -0.30% 3.40%
201908 3.40% -0.80% 4.20%
201909 3.40% -1.20% 4.60%
201910 3.30% -1.60% 4.90%
201911 3.50% -1.40% 4.90%
201912 4.40% -0.50% 4.90%
202001 0.00% 0.10% -0.10%
202002 4.80% -0.40% 5.20%
202003 5.00% -1.50% 6.50%
202004 5.50% -3.10% 8.60%
202005 6.80% -3.70% 10.50%
202006 6.50% -3.00% 9.50%
202007 6.90% -2.40% 9.30%
202008 8.00% -2.00% 10.00%
202009 8.10% -2.10% 10.20%
202010 9.10% -2.10% 11.20%
202011 10.00% -1.50% 11.50%
202012 8.60% -0.40% 9.00%
202101 14.70% 0.30% 14.40%
202102 7.40% 1.70% 5.70%
202103 7.10% 4.40% 2.70%
202104 6.20% 6.80% -0.60%
202105 6.10% 9.00% -2.90%
202106 5.50% 8.80% -3.30%
202107 4.90% 9.00% -4.10%
202108 4.20% 9.50% -5.30%
202109 3.70% 10.70% -7.00%
202110 2.80% 13.50% -10.70%
202111 3.00% 12.90% -9.90%
202112 3.50% 10.30% -6.80%
202201 -1.90% 9.10% -11.00%
202202 4.70% 8.80% -4.10%
202203 4.70% 8.30% -3.60%
202204 5.10% 8.00% -2.90%
202205 4.60% 6.40% -1.80%
202206 5.80% 6.10% -0.30%
202207 6.70% 4.20% 2.50%
202208 6.10% 2.30% 3.80%

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