M1 - PPI
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M1 - PPI
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| 说明 |
投资者经常用M1-PPI来形容股票市场的剩余流动性，大体逻辑在于，M1代表市场上的钱，PPI代表进入实体经济的钱，于是两者相减，即代表漏出到金融市场的钱。 |
相关图表
M1 - PPI 剩余流动性指标
①信用周期可以较大程度形容A股市场的剩余流动性环境。当信用大幅扩张的时候，也是企业部门能够通过各种手段大量拿到便宜资金的时候， 于是这一阶段，一般都会发生所谓的“脱实入虚”，即企业部门将拿到的资金投入房地产市场或者金融市场。
②作为一个验证，信用周期的指标可以很好的同M1-PPI相互拟合。投资者经常用M1-PPI来形容股票市场的剩余流动性，大体逻辑在于，M1代 表市场上的钱，PPI代表进入实体经济的钱，于是两者相减，即代表漏出到金融市场的钱。
③最终，信用周期表征的剩余流动性，很大程度决定了A股市场整体估值的水位。
【天风证券研究所】
| 时间 | M1同比 | PPI同比 | M1-PPI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 200001 | 19.38% | 0.03% | 19.35% |
| 200002 | 15.30% | 1.00% | 14.30% |
| 200003 | 18.70% | 1.87% | 16.83% |
| 200004 | 21.72% | 2.59% | 19.13% |
| 200005 | 22.30% | 2.50% | 19.80% |
| 200006 | 23.70% | 2.95% | 20.75% |
| 200007 | 22.60% | 4.50% | 18.10% |
| 200008 | 21.92% | 3.92% | 18.00% |
| 200009 | 20.76% | 3.70% | 17.06% |
| 200010 | 18.19% | 3.60% | 14.59% |
| 200011 | 17.10% | 3.50% | 13.60% |
| 200012 | 15.95% | 2.80% | 13.15% |
| 200101 | 16.83% | 1.43% | 15.40% |
| 200102 | 16.40% | 0.90% | 15.50% |
| 200103 | 17.40% | 0.22% | 17.18% |
| 200104 | 15.00% | -0.12% | 15.12% |
| 200105 | 13.00% | -0.20% | 13.20% |
| 200106 | 14.90% | -0.56% | 15.46% |
| 200107 | 11.92% | -1.27% | 13.19% |
| 200108 | 14.16% | -1.99% | 16.15% |
| 200109 | 12.26% | -2.90% | 15.16% |
| 200110 | 12.30% | -3.10% | 15.40% |
| 200111 | 11.40% | -3.72% | 15.12% |
| 200112 | 12.65% | -3.97% | 16.62% |
| 200201 | 9.50% | -4.00% | 13.50% |
| 200202 | 10.90% | -4.10% | 15.00% |
| 200203 | 10.10% | -3.98% | 14.08% |
| 200204 | 11.50% | -3.06% | 14.56% |
| 200205 | 14.60% | -2.63% | 17.23% |
| 200206 | 12.80% | -2.48% | 15.28% |
| 200207 | 17.00% | -2.34% | 19.34% |
| 200208 | 14.60% | -1.73% | 16.33% |
| 200209 | 15.90% | -1.38% | 17.28% |
| 200210 | 17.90% | -1.03% | 18.93% |
| 200211 | 18.50% | -0.41% | 18.91% |
| 200212 | 16.82% | 0.41% | 16.41% |
| 200301 | 19.50% | 2.38% | 17.12% |
| 200302 | 18.80% | 3.97% | 14.83% |
| 200303 | 20.12% | 4.60% | 15.52% |
| 200304 | 18.00% | 3.62% | 14.38% |
| 200305 | 18.80% | 1.96% | 16.84% |
| 200306 | 20.24% | 1.34% | 18.90% |
| 200307 | 20.00% | 1.39% | 18.61% |
| 200308 | 18.80% | 1.38% | 17.42% |
| 200309 | 18.51% | 1.37% | 17.14% |
| 200310 | 19.60% | 1.20% | 18.40% |
| 200311 | 18.90% | 1.92% | 16.98% |
| 200312 | 18.67% | 2.99% | 15.68% |
| 200401 | 15.74% | 3.47% | 12.27% |
| 200402 | 19.78% | 3.54% | 16.24% |
| 200403 | 20.12% | 3.99% | 16.13% |
| 200404 | 20.03% | 5.01% | 15.02% |
| 200405 | 19.24% | 5.70% | 13.54% |
| 200406 | 16.73% | 6.40% | 10.33% |
| 200407 | 15.53% | 6.38% | 9.15% |
| 200408 | 15.70% | 6.81% | 8.89% |
| 200409 | 14.24% | 7.90% | 6.34% |
| 200410 | 13.10% | 8.43% | 4.67% |
| 200411 | 14.32% | 8.10% | 6.22% |
| 200412 | 13.58% | 7.07% | 6.51% |
| 200501 | 15.84% | 5.81% | 10.03% |
| 200502 | 11.08% | 5.38% | 5.70% |
| 200503 | 10.40% | 5.64% | 4.76% |
| 200504 | 10.50% | 5.78% | 4.72% |
| 200505 | 10.40% | 5.90% | 4.50% |
| 200506 | 11.25% | 5.24% | 6.01% |
| 200507 | 11.00% | 5.19% | 5.81% |
| 200508 | 11.50% | 5.26% | 6.24% |
| 200509 | 11.64% | 4.50% | 7.14% |
| 200510 | 12.08% | 4.01% | 8.07% |
| 200511 | 12.71% | 3.21% | 9.50% |
| 200512 | 11.78% | 3.22% | 8.56% |
| 200601 | 10.63% | 3.05% | 7.58% |
| 200602 | 12.44% | 3.01% | 9.43% |
| 200603 | 12.67% | 2.49% | 10.18% |
| 200604 | 12.48% | 1.87% | 10.61% |
| 200605 | 14.01% | 2.43% | 11.58% |
| 200606 | 13.94% | 3.52% | 10.42% |
| 200607 | 15.34% | 3.58% | 11.76% |
| 200608 | 15.57% | 3.40% | 12.17% |
| 200609 | 15.70% | 3.45% | 12.25% |
| 200610 | 16.33% | 2.90% | 13.43% |
| 200611 | 16.83% | 2.78% | 14.05% |
| 200612 | 17.48% | 3.05% | 14.43% |
| 200701 | 19.80% | 3.30% | 16.50% |
| 200702 | 20.99% | 2.60% | 18.39% |
| 200703 | 19.81% | 2.65% | 17.16% |
| 200704 | 20.01% | 2.87% | 17.14% |
| 200705 | 19.28% | 2.76% | 16.52% |
| 200706 | 20.92% | 2.49% | 18.43% |
| 200707 | 20.94% | 2.39% | 18.55% |
| 200708 | 22.77% | 2.56% | 20.21% |
| 200709 | 22.07% | 2.71% | 19.36% |
| 200710 | 22.21% | 3.21% | 19.00% |
| 200711 | 21.67% | 4.55% | 17.12% |
| 200712 | 21.00% | 5.43% | 15.57% |
| 200801 | 20.54% | 6.07% | 14.47% |
| 200802 | 18.95% | 6.62% | 12.33% |
| 200803 | 17.97% | 7.95% | 10.02% |
| 200804 | 19.05% | 8.12% | 10.93% |
| 200805 | 17.93% | 8.22% | 9.71% |
| 200806 | 14.19% | 8.84% | 5.35% |
| 200807 | 13.96% | 10.03% | 3.93% |
| 200808 | 11.48% | 10.06% | 1.42% |
| 200809 | 9.43% | 9.13% | 0.30% |
| 200810 | 8.85% | 6.59% | 2.26% |
| 200811 | 6.80% | 1.99% | 4.81% |
| 200812 | 9.06% | -1.14% | 10.20% |
| 200901 | 6.68% | -3.35% | 10.03% |
| 200902 | 10.87% | -4.47% | 15.34% |
| 200903 | 17.04% | -5.99% | 23.03% |
| 200904 | 17.48% | -6.60% | 24.08% |
| 200905 | 18.69% | -7.20% | 25.89% |
| 200906 | 24.79% | -7.80% | 32.59% |
| 200907 | 26.37% | -8.22% | 34.59% |
| 200908 | 27.72% | -7.86% | 35.58% |
| 200909 | 29.51% | -6.99% | 36.50% |
| 200910 | 32.03% | -5.85% | 37.88% |
| 200911 | 34.63% | -2.08% | 36.71% |
| 200912 | 32.35% | 1.70% | 30.65% |
| 201001 | 38.96% | 4.32% | 34.64% |
| 201002 | 34.99% | 5.39% | 29.60% |
| 201003 | 29.94% | 5.91% | 24.03% |
| 201004 | 31.25% | 6.81% | 24.44% |
| 201005 | 29.90% | 7.13% | 22.77% |
| 201006 | 24.60% | 6.41% | 18.19% |
| 201007 | 22.90% | 4.84% | 18.06% |
| 201008 | 21.90% | 4.32% | 17.58% |
| 201009 | 20.90% | 4.33% | 16.57% |
| 201010 | 22.10% | 5.04% | 17.06% |
| 201011 | 22.10% | 6.06% | 16.04% |
| 201012 | 21.20% | 5.93% | 15.27% |
| 201101 | 13.60% | 6.64% | 6.96% |
| 201102 | 14.50% | 7.23% | 7.27% |
| 201103 | 15.00% | 7.31% | 7.69% |
| 201104 | 12.90% | 6.82% | 6.08% |
| 201105 | 12.70% | 6.79% | 5.91% |
| 201106 | 13.10% | 7.12% | 5.98% |
| 201107 | 11.60% | 7.54% | 4.06% |
| 201108 | 11.20% | 7.25% | 3.95% |
| 201109 | 8.85% | 6.52% | 2.33% |
| 201110 | 8.40% | 5.00% | 3.40% |
| 201111 | 7.80% | 2.72% | 5.08% |
| 201112 | 7.90% | 1.69% | 6.21% |
| 201201 | 3.10% | 0.73% | 2.37% |
| 201202 | 4.30% | 0.03% | 4.27% |
| 201203 | 4.40% | -0.32% | 4.72% |
| 201204 | 3.10% | -0.70% | 3.80% |
| 201205 | 3.50% | -1.40% | 4.90% |
| 201206 | 4.70% | -2.08% | 6.78% |
| 201207 | 4.60% | -2.87% | 7.47% |
| 201208 | 4.50% | -3.48% | 7.98% |
| 201209 | 7.30% | -3.55% | 10.85% |
| 201210 | 6.10% | -2.76% | 8.86% |
| 201211 | 5.50% | -2.20% | 7.70% |
| 201212 | 6.50% | -1.94% | 8.44% |
| 201301 | 15.30% | -1.64% | 16.94% |
| 201302 | 9.50% | -1.63% | 11.13% |
| 201303 | 11.90% | -1.92% | 13.82% |
| 201304 | 11.90% | -2.62% | 14.52% |
| 201305 | 11.30% | -2.87% | 14.17% |
| 201306 | 9.10% | -2.70% | 11.80% |
| 201307 | 9.70% | -2.27% | 11.97% |
| 201308 | 9.90% | -1.63% | 11.53% |
| 201309 | 8.90% | -1.34% | 10.24% |
| 201310 | 8.90% | -1.51% | 10.41% |
| 201311 | 9.40% | -1.42% | 10.82% |
| 201312 | 9.30% | -1.36% | 10.66% |
| 201401 | 1.20% | -1.64% | 2.84% |
| 201402 | 6.90% | -2.02% | 8.92% |
| 201403 | 5.40% | -2.30% | 7.70% |
| 201404 | 5.50% | -2.00% | 7.50% |
| 201405 | 5.70% | -1.45% | 7.15% |
| 201406 | 8.90% | -1.11% | 10.01% |
| 201407 | 6.70% | -0.87% | 7.57% |
| 201408 | 5.70% | -1.20% | 6.90% |
| 201409 | 4.80% | -1.80% | 6.60% |
| 201410 | 3.20% | -2.24% | 5.44% |
| 201411 | 3.20% | -2.69% | 5.89% |
| 201412 | 3.20% | -3.32% | 6.52% |
| 201501 | 10.60% | -4.32% | 14.92% |
| 201502 | 5.60% | -4.80% | 10.40% |
| 201503 | 2.90% | -4.56% | 7.46% |
| 201504 | 3.70% | -4.57% | 8.27% |
| 201505 | 4.70% | -4.61% | 9.31% |
| 201506 | 4.30% | -4.81% | 9.11% |
| 201507 | 6.60% | -5.37% | 11.97% |
| 201508 | 9.30% | -5.92% | 15.22% |
| 201509 | 11.40% | -5.95% | 17.35% |
| 201510 | 14.00% | -5.90% | 19.90% |
| 201511 | 15.70% | -5.90% | 21.60% |
| 201512 | 15.20% | -5.90% | 21.10% |
| 201601 | 18.60% | -5.30% | 23.90% |
| 201602 | 17.40% | -4.90% | 22.30% |
| 201603 | 22.10% | -4.30% | 26.40% |
| 201604 | 22.90% | -3.40% | 26.30% |
| 201605 | 23.70% | -2.80% | 26.50% |
| 201606 | 24.60% | -2.60% | 27.20% |
| 201607 | 25.40% | -1.70% | 27.10% |
| 201608 | 25.30% | -0.80% | 26.10% |
| 201609 | 24.70% | 0.10% | 24.60% |
| 201610 | 23.90% | 1.20% | 22.70% |
| 201611 | 22.70% | 3.30% | 19.40% |
| 201612 | 21.40% | 5.50% | 15.90% |
| 201701 | 14.50% | 6.90% | 7.60% |
| 201702 | 21.40% | 7.80% | 13.60% |
| 201703 | 18.80% | 7.60% | 11.20% |
| 201704 | 18.50% | 6.40% | 12.10% |
| 201705 | 17.00% | 5.50% | 11.50% |
| 201706 | 15.00% | 5.50% | 9.50% |
| 201707 | 15.30% | 5.50% | 9.80% |
| 201708 | 14.00% | 6.30% | 7.70% |
| 201709 | 14.00% | 6.90% | 7.10% |
| 201710 | 13.00% | 6.90% | 6.10% |
| 201711 | 12.70% | 5.80% | 6.90% |
| 201712 | 11.80% | 4.90% | 6.90% |
| 201801 | 15.00% | 4.30% | 10.70% |
| 201802 | 8.50% | 3.70% | 4.80% |
| 201803 | 7.10% | 3.10% | 4.00% |
| 201804 | 7.20% | 3.40% | 3.80% |
| 201805 | 6.00% | 4.10% | 1.90% |
| 201806 | 6.60% | 4.70% | 1.90% |
| 201807 | 5.10% | 4.60% | 0.50% |
| 201808 | 3.90% | 4.10% | -0.20% |
| 201809 | 4.00% | 3.60% | 0.40% |
| 201810 | 2.70% | 3.30% | -0.60% |
| 201811 | 1.50% | 2.70% | -1.20% |
| 201812 | 1.50% | 0.90% | 0.60% |
| 201901 | 0.40% | 0.10% | 0.30% |
| 201902 | 1.60% | 0.10% | 1.50% |
| 201903 | 4.60% | 0.40% | 4.20% |
| 201904 | 2.90% | 0.90% | 2.00% |
| 201905 | 3.40% | 0.60% | 2.80% |
| 201906 | 4.40% | 0.00% | 4.40% |
| 201907 | 3.10% | -0.30% | 3.40% |
| 201908 | 3.40% | -0.80% | 4.20% |
| 201909 | 3.40% | -1.20% | 4.60% |
| 201910 | 3.30% | -1.60% | 4.90% |
| 201911 | 3.50% | -1.40% | 4.90% |
| 201912 | 4.40% | -0.50% | 4.90% |
| 202001 | 0.00% | 0.10% | -0.10% |
| 202002 | 4.80% | -0.40% | 5.20% |
| 202003 | 5.00% | -1.50% | 6.50% |
| 202004 | 5.50% | -3.10% | 8.60% |
| 202005 | 6.80% | -3.70% | 10.50% |
| 202006 | 6.50% | -3.00% | 9.50% |
| 202007 | 6.90% | -2.40% | 9.30% |
| 202008 | 8.00% | -2.00% | 10.00% |
| 202009 | 8.10% | -2.10% | 10.20% |
| 202010 | 9.10% | -2.10% | 11.20% |
| 202011 | 10.00% | -1.50% | 11.50% |
| 202012 | 8.60% | -0.40% | 9.00% |
| 202101 | 14.70% | 0.30% | 14.40% |
| 202102 | 7.40% | 1.70% | 5.70% |
| 202103 | 7.10% | 4.40% | 2.70% |
| 202104 | 6.20% | 6.80% | -0.60% |
| 202105 | 6.10% | 9.00% | -2.90% |
| 202106 | 5.50% | 8.80% | -3.30% |
| 202107 | 4.90% | 9.00% | -4.10% |
| 202108 | 4.20% | 9.50% | -5.30% |
| 202109 | 3.70% | 10.70% | -7.00% |
| 202110 | 2.80% | 13.50% | -10.70% |
| 202111 | 3.00% | 12.90% | -9.90% |
| 202112 | 3.50% | 10.30% | -6.80% |
| 202201 | -1.90% | 9.10% | -11.00% |
| 202202 | 4.70% | 8.80% | -4.10% |
| 202203 | 4.70% | 8.30% | -3.60% |
| 202204 | 5.10% | 8.00% | -2.90% |
| 202205 | 4.60% | 6.40% | -1.80% |
| 202206 | 5.80% | 6.10% | -0.30% |
| 202207 | 6.70% | 4.20% | 2.50% |
| 202208 | 6.10% | 2.30% | 3.80% |
| 202209 | 6.40% | 0.90% | 5.50% |
| 202210 | 5.80% | -1.30% | 7.10% |
| 202211 | 4.60% | -1.30% | 5.90% |
| 202212 | 3.70% | -0.70% | 4.40% |
| 202301 | 6.70% | -0.80% | 7.50% |
| 202302 | 5.10% | -1.40% | 6.50% |
| 202303 | 5.80% | -2.50% | 8.30% |
| 202304 | 5.30% | -3.60% | 8.90% |
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